Jun 30, 2017

AFL

A highly unhelpful guide to Round Fifteen

19 Comments

The only guide to the round that admits it’s completely unhelpful. What it lacks in insight, it makes up for with wild theories and detours onto unrelated topics.

It’s your unhelpful guide to round fifteen.

Friday

Melbourne v Sydney (MCG) 7.50pm

Friday night sees the two premier forwards in the competition, Buddy Franklin and Tom McDonald, go head-to-head.

Obviously, McDonald is the superior player, as he can play down back too but Buddy has had a decent enough career.

I wish I had a dollar for every ‘why Melbourne could win the flag’ story I’ve seen this week. Why, I could have $17 if that was the case. Wait, that’s not very much, it’s one beer at the footy.

The only thing I’m sure of is no one has a clue who is going to win the premiership, even the script writers at AFL House are still consulting with their official betting partner over who is going to win it.

Melbourne will be without Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts, Jeff Garlett, Christian Salem and Nathan Jones. It’s a tough ask for the Dees.

Especially as the major injury for the Swans is Kurt Tippett, arguably a net positive for Sydney.

In positive news for Melbourne, Clayton Oliver will play despite almost being almost murdered in Perth.

The Swans have certainly turned the corner after starting the season so poorly that I thought a betting syndicate had got to them. It seems this is not true; they were just terrible.

They’re not yet back to their best, in fact, last week they got lucky. I understand the Swans sent Brendon Goddard a match payment for last week.

Melbourne have done well this year despite injuries; the question is at what point does it all become too much?

I think it could be this week, but it should be close.

Saturday

Western Bulldogs v West Coast (ES) 1.45pm

It’s a little-known fact that the Eagles do not travel well. This year, they’ve added another string to their bow, losing at home.

While versatility is important, it’s only worthwhile in the context of positive outcomes. We can all be bad at lots of things. I’m sure the Eagles haven’t set out to be able to lose no matter where they play, but they’ve achieved it.

After all the legal proceeding this week, Will Schofield will miss this game due to injury anyway, proving again that when it comes to the AFL, only the lawyers win.

Much has been made of the Bulldogs’ suffering a Premiership hangover, which is the best kind of hangover to have. All my hangovers aren’t a result of achieving something; they’re a result of me trying to feel good about my lack of achievements.

The Doggies’ hangover is slipping into ‘possible liver damage’ though. They need to take a few beroccas, get some fast food and get on with it.

The Bulldogs managed to get the win against North last week, but like the AFL making policy on the fly, they made it unnecessarily complicated for themselves.

We all keep waiting for them to come good, but like later seasons of The O.C., it’s hard to recapture the magic of the past.

Bob Murphy is back for this game, and it’s at Etihad, so I’m expecting a Doggies victory.

Carlton v Adelaide (MCG) 2.10pm

Carlton last week were disappointing against Richmond, but that’s more a reflection of how far their standards have risen this season.

Under Bolton, the Blues have become two-thirds of an AFL club, they just need a forward line, and they’d be there. Best not to think of all those forwards they’ve traded away over the years.

This will see Bryce Gibbs take on the side he wishes he was playing for. Like being in love with your best friend’s partner, this has awkward written all over it.

You can’t fault Gibbs though; he’s been professional all year, a maturity you don’t often see in life. If I were him, I would have sulked all year. Sulking is the always best way to draw attention to yourself.

The Crows have been not quite right during the middle part of the season. A lot of the talk is that other clubs have FIGURED THEM OUT. This is the worst thing that can happen to a football club or an individual.

No one ever says, ‘I’ve figured you out and your awesome!’ It’s always negative. It’s ‘I figured you out, and the image you present to the world is a façade that masks the deeply flawed person you are.’

Losing to Hawthorn at home has whipped Crows fans into a frenzy of despair, not that ‘frenzy of despair’ is far from their resting state if you listen to Adelaide talkback radio.

Should Crows fans be worried? Probably but this season is hardly irretrievable.

Crows to win this.

Gold Coast v North Melbourne (MS) 4.35pm

Good news for North fans, the shot clock will now be shown in the final two minutes of the game. I guess that doesn’t really make up for potentially losing a game due to an idiotic novelty no one wanted, but the AFL gave us anyway.

The quicker the shot clock goes altogether, the better. Simon Lethlean can make himself look incredibly clever just by going around and fixing up the silly things Mark Evans put in place. In fact, the AFL should hire a General Manager Stopping Stupid Ideas Being Implemented.

What a great business card that would make. It would be a tough job though; you’d effectively be working at cross-purposes to the rest of the organisation.

After a false start last week, this should be Gary Ablett’s 300th game, and despite the fact he’s desperate to get out of there, it should be a celebration on the Gold Coast.

Looking ahead, the Suns are facing a future without Ablett and Rodney Eade, and it’s almost time to start wildly speculating about who should coach them next season. A loss here and that will certainly be the case.

My hope is they get Mick Malthouse. The comedic value of Mick on the Gold Coast is undeniable.

North to win this.

Greater Western Sydney v Geelong (SS) 7.25pm

Joel Selwood has been named to play, but they’re going to wait and see, which is mad. Give the guy a rest. I might not be a doctor, but I have strong opinions, and I say he shouldn’t play.

This game could be a preview of the Grand Final, in that of all the shaky teams occupying the top eight, these two are probably the least shaky.

Geelong’s problem is they rely too much on Patrick Dangerfield, but if you’re going to rely too much on someone, Dangerfield is the player. He leads the league in total clearances and media appearances.

I opened a paper the other day, and Patrick Dangerfield wasn’t in it. I almost fell off my chair.

The Giants currently have a lot of injuries, and their injury list would be a top eight side all by itself.

My doubts about GWS are strongly linked to the fact they’ve lost to Carlton. Still, they have the talent to win here and if Selwood is out the Cats will struggle.

Port Adelaide v Richmond (AO) 7.40pm

So, the AFL becomes another workplace where you can’t just knock someone out cold.

What a nanny state we live in. In my day, many a meeting was settled by fisticuffs. Almost all my annual performance reviews used to end in them. But it was all in good fun.

A lot of people tried to make out Bachar Houli got his original diminished sentence due to being of the Muslim faith. While it’s fun to pile on minority groups, Hello Giants fans, attributing any motive to a Match Review Panel decision is a foolish quest.

Throwing darts blindfolded doesn’t need a motive.

We all remember what Port Adelaide did to Richmond in the finals a few years ago. This week Neil Balme got into the wrong car as he fled from journalists, showed it’s just not on the field Richmond perform poorly under pressure.

Port were very good against Collingwood, and here they have an opportunity to cement themselves in the top four. If Port Adelaide were based in Melbourne, they’d be getting a lot of ‘why the Power can win the premiership’ pieces written about them.

Port to win here.

Sunday

Essendon v Brisbane (ES) 1.10pm

I’m still trying to figure out how the Bombers managed to lose last week’s game. Surely the fix was in? It would make a lot more sense than what seemed to have happened.

At least actively throwing the game would give you confidence that Essendon can execute a plan.

Luckily for the Bombers, they face the Lions and a Brisbane team without Dayne Beams. Playing the Lions without Beams is like racing a car without an engine.

I’m not saying the Lions can’t win this, I’m writing it.

On the positive side for Brisbane, they’ve quietly gone about signing up a lot of their young talent. It’s a good sign for the club. Previously, they weren’t even seeing out their existing contracts, let alone signing new ones.

I do still worry though that the Lions may never overcome losing James Aish.

Hawthorn v Collingwood (MCG) 3.20pm

Bad news for Nathan Buckley this week with captain Scott Pendlebury throwing his full support behind him. Dangerous times then.

Personally, Buckley has ticked every box for me as a Collingwood coach. He seems like a nice person, is a good media performer and has ensured the Pies don’t bother anyone in September. It will be sad to let him go, but I’ve got faith in the Collingwood hierarchy to select another bad coach.

Collingwood gets their entire forward line back this week in the form of Jamie Elliot. That should make a big difference; kicking goals seems to be important in this sport.

Hawthorn will be feeling good after beating the Crows last week, and it’s tempting to think they’re back to being a good side but they’ve earnt the right to be seen as a poor side this year, and we shouldn’t let one win take that away from them.

I think they’ll win here but you never know with these two, they’re just not that good.

Fremantle v St Kilda (DS) 4.40pm

Glad this is buried in the Sunday twilight spot. Otherwise, they’d be a danger people would see it.

The Saints have been disappointing this year, but there they are in the eight. If they find some form, who knows? Perhaps I should rattle off a ‘why the Saints could win the flag’ piece. I might do one for every team, so I can post the one of the actual winner after the Grand Final and act like I was some Nostradamus of footy.

I probably don’t need to write one for Fremantle.

The Dockers do get back Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands this week, meaning they are a chance of being competitive.

In good news this week for Fremantle, it looks like he will stay, something I knew would happen the moment Perth FM breakfast radio guaranteed he was leaving for St Kilda.

I’m tipping the Saints here, but it will be tough. They’ll need to win if they’re going to make the eight or this season will be written off as more disappointing than Zac Snyder movie.

I'm touring my new show 'Insufficient Intent' around the country. Come see me in the bye weekend before the finals. All the details are available here.

You can help support me in producing this ridiculous nonsense I churn out on a regular basis. My aim is to keep as much of my stuff on this site and available to everyone and not behind paywalls. Find out more here: https://titusoreily.com/support-titus

COMMENTS

Telly Savalis

Jun 30, 2017

Absolute gold Titus! I agree you don't need to write a 'why Fremantle could win the flag' piece.

CaptainFatNavel

Jun 30, 2017

Not many workplaces where a big, boofhead ruckman from a place north of Victoria can go round deliberately targeting small guys and trying to maim them, and getting away with it, either.

Hmmm, on the Houli issue, Paddy Ryder doesn't just swing an arm at a scragger against Adelaide, he deliberately delivers a punch to the side of the head. But because Riley Knight doesn't have a glass jaw it's 2 weeks - with a dodgy record. Go figure.

CLIVE WATERHOUSE'S UNDERPANTS

Jun 30, 2017

The AFL Season is "Manifestly Inadequate" - I demand another two weeks at the end of the year!!

Still Haunted by the 88 Grand Final

Jun 30, 2017

Mr O'Reily, (I'll correct the spelling error shortly), as a kindred long suffering Melbourne supporter ( who's never even been skiing) I think that even a loss by less than 15 points will be a win tonight.
Having said that, channelling the great 'Swooper Northey' this mob are playing better than themselves, and with some luck ( read umpires, for a bloody change) could actually get up !

Now, about this spelling error; I've been troubled by it for years, but was always too lazy to type, but I'm riding on a wave of MFC hope, and needed to address it.

My Maternal Grandfather, played for the Tigers in the late 30's, early 40's, and I've always hoped there was some sort of semi-tenous link to "Grandpa Josh, and Skinny" in your name. (because real fame has always eluded our family)
I can only live in hope...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Reilly_(Australian_footballer)

Holden Broke

Jun 30, 2017

Do you hold some deep-seated grudge against Fremantle footy club?

Cob-ber

Jun 30, 2017

I am sure you blokes south of the border just love listening to Bruce McAvaney. His ability to provide obscure historical factoids during the exiting bits is curiously informative, and his knack of telling you exactly what you are watching must be invaluable for all the blind people who watch TV. So here’s a suggestion. To avoid missing his talented commentary week after bloody week, why not start a petition for him to commentate only on those games where Victorian sides play each other.

Max

Jun 30, 2017

Agreed - tough work listening to Bruce on what should be the most relaxing night of the week - hates an interstate team winning

Waleedizzaflog

Jun 30, 2017

I'm fairly upset that the AFL didn't suspend Waleed Aly for life for bringing the game into disrepute by acting as a referee for Bachar. Old mate Houli may have got off had it not been for the reference from the king of flogs. Who else has wanted to knock Carlton blokes out? Let's face it, we all have at some point.

JulinsPostie

Jun 30, 2017

Including most Carlton fans.

65 metres out

Jun 30, 2017

Chuck the brother of the CEO into that mix - obscure 'intellectual' references, convoluted sentences, tongue twisting analogies, player mind reading abilities. I swear at times he's forgotten what he's talking about halfway through a play. Spare me! Oh to have someone commentate who's not trying to prove how good (or worthy) they are.

Cjb

Jun 30, 2017

Pretty sure that Bruce is from Adelaide? So Vic teams. by definition are all interstate for him?

Cob-ber

Jun 30, 2017

Good one!

Bloke from the outer

Jun 30, 2017

Tiger fan for 50 years and no problem with Houli getting a couple. But how in hell was that deliberate. He swung his arm back at a flog holding onto him. He didn't look at him, he wouldn't have swung his arm if he wasn't held. Instead I watch week after week 'stars' belting players and not even getting reported. Richmond should take the AFL on regarding the word deliberate. Reckless is the word the AFL has in their own vernacular.

Murpho

Jun 30, 2017

A Freo fan who lives in Canberra and originally hails from the UK, which I'm sure qualifies me to write an even more unhelpful blog than yours, but thanks for the entertainment and the chuckles and we'll see you at your show in Canberra. And you can read my blog about "why Fremantle will win the Premiership" here. Just kidding. We are marginally less bad than Sam Newman thinks we are. Marginally.

Josh

Jun 30, 2017

Was gonna read this. But I'm sick so I'm going for a surf.

Jona

Jun 30, 2017

It's funny that you Titus deride Freo as some sort of basket case...admittedly until we drafted Pav we probably were. But it would be nice to understand the animosity coming from Melbourne supporter, a club that has had about as much success as Freo in the last 20 years...

Dave

Jun 30, 2017

I like that well said

Billious

Jun 30, 2017

Bruce McAvaney is not a Victorian he is a South Australian and despite critism of him as a Victorian has and still does reside in Adelaide. Bruce was implanted in Victoria as a form of pay back to Victorians for all the misery Victorian superiority complex has imposed on the rest of the nation for over a hundred years.

When Bruce travels to Victoria to deliver historical /hysterical cultural lessons calling our great game, many of us direhard Victorians are convinced the collective IQ of both states increases and delivers Victoria a marginal competitive educational advantage over Tasmania, so please give Bruce a break he is doing great work helping Victoria be great again, perhaps even akin to the "Cowboy Premier" we elected to destroy our state in four years but achieved this goal in two.

If it wasn't for Bruce and his annoying distractions, we would all be focussed on holding the AFL more accountable to ensure they adopt further rule changes to make the " Victorian Game" and umpires more confusing than their efforts, to date have achieved. Only then, as Australians, can we stand up and say that finally after all these years rugby (alias modern AFL style footy) is truely our national game. Bruce in twenty years will probably still be calling "Aussie Rules Rugby" and most likely one of the few who remembers what real footy used to be like.

Duges

Jul 01, 2017

Thank (insert your diety or not) for the Melbourne and Richmond football clubs. If not for them Fremantle's record in the AFL would look pretty bad. (Recent expansion teams not included)