With talks between the AFL and the AFL Players Association (AFLPA) on a new pay deal breaking down, footy could be heading towards a strike (it won’t, it’s all posturing).

The current impasse comes down to two different models of how to pay the players.

The AFLPA would like a ‘revenue sharing model’ where a fixed percentage of the game’s revenues go to the players.

Paul Marsh had a similar model when he worked at the Australian Cricketers Association. It’s part of the reason David Warner can now live the high life surrounded by cartoon filled OLED TVs.

However, the AFL would prefer a ‘less sharing model’, where the AFL keeps more of the money.

The AFL argue they can then put more money back into growing the game, executive salaries and junkets, like the International Rules series.

The AFL won this fight five years ago and expect to win it again.

Under a revenue sharing model, players get more when revenues go up and less when it goes down.

If revenues keep going up it means less money for the league. The reverse is true too. A fixed model is terrible for the league if revenues decline.

Given the players want a revenue sharing model and the AFL doesn’t, you can bet both think revenues will keep going up over the next five years, the new TV deal makes sure of it.

So this is two groups fighting over a rapidly expanding pie. This is often when the fight gets more intense, not when times are tough. This is like a gold rush, everyone wants to grab as much as the can because if you miss out now that’s it, you sit around for the next five years watching everyone else get rich.

In the end, it mainly comes down to money. A fixed model could be accepted by the players, they will just want a premium for vacating a right to share in any unexpected revenue growth. It then becomes a question of what’s it worth to the AFL to avoid a revenue sharing model.

The answer is a lot. Once a revenue sharing model is in, it’s very hard to get out. Then the AFLPA come back every five years and argue about increase the percentage. The nightmare scenario for administrators is watching that percentage keep creeping up over the years, often for things they believe the players aren’t even responsible for.

Why do I think the players won’t strike? Because lots of people at the AFLPA and plenty of players want to work in the ‘AFL system’ for the rest of their life.

Getting into ‘the system’ is like getting tenure at a university, you have a job for life no matter what your performance is like or what you do.

Whatever happens, in this mad scramble you can be sure both groups will be looking out for the fans interests first. Or not.